Economic update for week ending February 21, 2014

Stocks were mixed this holiday-shortened week responding to a mixed bag of news. Inflation reports show inflation remains low. In January, overall prices rose 1.6%  from a year ago. Prices of most commodities rose modestly while the shelter index was up at 2.6%  compared to a year ago because rents are rising. 

 

The Dow closed out the week at 16,103.30 down -0.32%  from last week’s close of 16,154.39. The Nasdaq was up, ending the week at 4,263.41 up 0.45% from last week’s 4,244.03 close. The S&P 500 was down very slightly, closing the week at 1,838.63, down -0.13% from last week’s 1,838.63 close.

 

The  10-year Treasury note yield rate was down slightly to 2.73% after ending last week at 2.75%. It was 1.99% a year ago. 

 

Mortgage Interest rates rose slightly this week. The Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that the 30-year-fixed rate up to 4.33% from 4.28% last week.  The 15-year-fixed inched up to 3.35% from last week’s 3.33%. A year ago the 30-year fixed was at 3.56% and the 15-year was at 2.77% interest rates on loans over $417,000 are around 4.625% for 30 year fixed and 3.625% on 15 year fixed.

Low inventory continues to have a constraining effect on California home sales. The California Association of Realtors^® reported that closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 363,640 units in January, marking the third straight month that sales were below the 400,000 level and the sixth straight decline on a year-over-year basis. Sales in January were up 0.3% from a revised 362,430 in December but were down -13.8%  from a revised 421,780 in January 2013. Inventory at the higher end of the market, priced $1 million and higher did increase 11.1% from last year. The statewide median price of an existing, single-family detached home fell -6.2%  from December’s revised median price of $438,090 to $410,990 in January.  January’s price was 22.1% higher than the revised $336,650 recorded in January 2013, marking 23 consecutive months of year-over-year price increases and the 19th straight month of double-digit annual increases. The available supply of existing, single-family detached homes for sale rose in January to 4.3 months, up from December’s Unsold Inventory Index of 3 months. The index was 3.5 months in January 2013.  The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home also increased to 44.3 days in January, up from 40.2 days in December and from a revised 36.7 days in January 2013.

In Los Angeles County alone, the median sold price of existing homes was down -3.7% in January from December’s $439,830 to $423,570 which is up 21.1% from January 2013’s $349,720 median price. Total sales were down- 21.2% month over month and down -13.3% from January 2013.

Data from the National Association of Realtors^® showed that existing-home sales fell by -5.1%from December to January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.62 million the lowest level since July 2012. Home sales were also down -5.1% year over year. The cold weather, low inventory, and rising mortgage rates are cited as potential reasons for the lower numbers. Inventory improved modestly, up 2.2% month over month to 1.9 million homes and up 7.3% from January 2013. The current inventory supply rate is now 4.9 months, up from 4.6 months in December and 4.4 months a year ago. The median existing home price for all housing types nationwide in January was $188,900, up 10.7% from January 2013. The median time on market for all homes was 67 days in January, down from 72 days in December and 31%  of homes sold in January were on the market for less than a month. Existing-home sales in the West dropped -7.3%  to a pace of 1.01 million in January, and are -13.7% below a year ago. The median price for the West was $273,500, up 14.6% from January 2013.

The latest foreclosure data from RealtyTrac shows that one in every 1,058 U.S. homes received a foreclosure filing in January. Foreclosure filings are down -18% from January 2013 but up 8% from December 2013. The rise in foreclosure activity was caused by a surge in starts, properties just entering foreclosure, as well as scheduled foreclosure auctions. The report did show that foreclosure starts in California actually rose 57% from a year ago after 17 consecutive months of annual decreases.

 

The extreme weather that has hammered much of the country seems to have also impacted homebuilder confidence. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Builder Sentiment Index is now 46, down from January’s 56 reading and the lowest level since May. Economists had been predicting a number similar to the one they saw in January. Generally a reading below 50 indicates that more builders see sales conditions as poor rather than good. Builders’ prediction for sales over the next six months also fell by six points to 54.

 

U.S. housing starts saw their biggest drop in nearly three years last month. The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported that single-housing family starts were down -16% in January to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 880,000 units below economists’ predictions of 950,000. This was attributed to the unusually cold weather gripping much of the country and in fact in the hard-hit Midwest, starts were down a record -67.7%.  Groundbreaking for single-family homes, the largest segment of the market, fell 15.9 percent to a 573,000-unit pace in January, the lowest level since August 2012. Permits to build homes were down by -5.4% in January, the largest drop in since June.

The National Housing Trend Report from realtor.com® showed that the median list price for January rose 8.3% compared to last year but only up 0.1% from the previous month. The number of properties for sale was up 3.1% for the year but down -3.3% from the previous month. The median age of inventory was essentially unchanged. For the Los Angeles-Long Beach MSA the median price was $449,000 up 25.1% from a year ago but down -0.20% from the previous month. The amount of total listings was 18,600 up 3.40% from the previous year and up 5.10% from the previous month. The median age of inventory was 74 days, down -5.1% from the previous year and down -1.3% from the previous month.

We are heading into the selling season which will be a welcome relief when it comes to real estate related data. Expect to see the month over month indicators pick up after March! Not only do they pick up at that time every year, we are beginning to see the pick up in the marketplace.  

While inventory levels are still near record lows we are beginning to see many more homes listed in many of our markets. That alone should increase the number of sales as we still see stronger demand than inventory supply which is evident by the high number of multiple offers. Obviously, not all homes are getting multiple offers, there is a limit to how high a home can be priced. Homes that are not well priced are sitting on the market. 

10 things that could harm your home's value

1. A pool. Forget what you might have heard. An in-ground pool in most parts of the country doesn't automatically raise the value of your home. "I would stay away from pools if you can at all avoid it," says Irwin.

Having a swimming pool will automatically limit your market when it comes time to sell, he says. "It's constant upkeep, they get cracks, the equipment goes down and it's expensive to replace, and the liability is high."

Others consider it a mixed blessing. "For the people who want the pool, they're willing to pay for it," says Austin. "But there are an awful lot of people who don't want a pool."

Consider your home value and location. In a million-dollar house, not having a pool is a detraction, says Irwin. "But they won't give you much more" if you do have one.

 2. No garage or small garage. Unless you're living in a condo, retirement community or historical or in-town neighborhood, most buyers will look for at least a two-car garage. "If you don't have a garage, it's a real negative," says Austin. "If you have a one-car garage, that's a problem, too."

3. Garbled floor plan. Small rooms and bathrooms, an inconvenient floor plan or a layout that requires you to access bedrooms or bathrooms through other rooms will detract value from your home.

4. Outmoded appliances or systems.Who wants an electrical system or plumbing system incapable of handling modern conveniences? Would you buy a home if the appliances were worn or broken?
Phipps remembers walking into one house with clients who casually opened the oven door -- and it fell off.

5. Stale or overly personal decor.Sure, red is the hot wall color right now, "but for how long?" says Hummel.
"We've gone into houses where they've had purple walls or electric green," says Austin. "It's a turn-off to many people."

 6. A bad roof. Roofs are expensive to replace and a good roof is considered standard equipment in a house. If your roof has problems, expect to take a hit in the price.

 7. Bad location. Phipps remembers one neighborhood with a significant difference in value between the even- and odd-numbered houses. The reason? The odd numbered ones backed on an interstate highway, as well as some ugly utility lines.
As a result, "the even-numbered houses were worth about 10 percent more than the odd-numbered homes," he says.

8. Poor maintenance. "If you've got an old roof and outdated paint, I don't care if you've updated the kitchen, you won't even get the buyer out of the car," says Bredemeyer.
"If you know you've got to have something fixed, fix it," says Zollinger. Otherwise, people "will subtract the cost or not make an offer on the house. And if people think the house hasn't been taken care of, they will wonder what else they're not seeing."

9. Environmental hazards.Besides being a danger to human health, lead, mold or asbestos can kill home value. 

10. A laundry list of needed improvements. "It detracts if you have to do work," says Gaylord. "A house that you can move in today -- and it's livable -- is fine."
But a list of must-dos just to conduct everyday life will scare off a lot of potential home buyers. "Especially with first-time buyers," he says. "Most of them are [already] scraping just to get in."

Your Investment Property Shopping Criteria

It's time to start looking for a property. Before you do you need to define your selection criteria. This section will focus on what your criteria is, why it matters, and how to define it.
Imagine that you want to use a new recipe in making your dinner tonight . You take out a cookbook to find a recipe that looks good, discover a great baked chicken meal, and make your shopping list of ingredients in order to make the meal for your family. You head to the store and begin picking up the items on your list. Chicken, basil, olive oil, and other items begin to fill your cart. Suddenly - you see the spaghetti and remember another recipe that you once wanted to try with spaghetti. You begin to reach for the spaghetti but then remember your shopping list. Spaghetti isn't on the list for tonight's dinner, so you put back the distraction and continue on your way home to make a perfect dinner for your family.
Real estate is no different. Your selection criteria list is just like your ingredient list in the example above. It is designed to keep you focused on shopping for the things you need, and not waste money on other good looking things along the way. Real estate is an exciting field with a lot of different niches and strategies - so it is easy to get distracted by the next big thing or trend. Having a clearly defined selection criteria can help you stay focused, avoid "analysis paralysis" and keep you on track to buy a great investment property. By defining your criteria, you will be able to narrow down the choices in the market, and you will then eliminate the vast majority of deals that are only distractions. Instead, you'll focus on finding just the kind of deals that you are interested in buying.

Creating Your Selection Criteria

In chapter three, we looked at a number of different niches you could invest in, as well as multiple strategies you can use to invest. It's now time to choose the niche and strategy and come up with a list of criteria to narrow down your selection further.
There are a number of different items you will want to consider to add to your "criteria list." These could include:

• Town
• Neighborhood
• Property Size (Square Ft)
• Lot Size
• Property Conditions
• Number of Units
• Cap Rate
• Cashflow
• Appreciation Potential

No one can tell you exactly what your investment property criteria should or should not include. Some of it will come down to personal preference, such as "I only want to buy in Seattle" or "I only want houses with basements," but most of your chosen criteria will revolve around the kind of investment you are getting into. For example, if you are looking to become a "buy and hold" investor of small multifamily units, your criteria is going to include small multifamily properties and will exclude old commercial buildings.
By specifying, ahead of time, what criteria you are willing to look at, your search becomes much more manageable. In the same way, you are able to more effectively communicate your desires to others who may help you buy property. If you simply told people "I am looking for real estate," the most likely response would be "good for you..." However, if you instead mentioned that you were looking "to buy a small single family house in the Rockford neighborhood for under $150,000," you enable others to think of properties that might match that description and get you connected with the deal.

Understanding "The Rules" of Investment Property

Perhaps the most important part of the criteria you put together is the financial component. If a deal doesn't make sense financially, it's not going to be a strong investment for you. In chapter two we looked at some of the basic math surrounding real estate investing, such as income, cashflow, and return on investment. However, generally speaking, a listing is not going to tell you the important information you want to know about the financials of a property. Yes, you can generally determine the amount of income the property makes - but you won't know immediately how much monthly cashflow the property produces, how overpriced the property is, or what you should offer. Additionally - it's not going to make sense to get out your spreadsheet and do a full property evaluation on every single deal you glance at. This is when "rules" come into play.
A "rule" is short for "rule of thumb." Rules can help give you a quick way to evaluate a property's financials on the fly. As with any "rule of thumb" using rules is not an exact science and should never be relied on entirely to decide if a property is a good investment. However - they can help you quickly filter a property and decide if it's worth further evaluation. Let's take a look at a few of these rules:

The 2% rule states that your monthly rent should be approximately 2% of the purchase price. In other words, a $100,000 home should rent for $2,000 per month; a $50,000 home should rent for $1,000 per month. This is a very conservative estimate that is very simplistic but can help in deciding if a property warrants a deeper look. In most parts of the country, the 2% is very difficult to achieve, but the closer you can get to that, the better cashflow you'll receive.
Real World Example: An average three bedroom home rents for $800 per month in your neighborhood. According to the 2% rule - you should be looking to spend around $40,000 for that property ($800 / .02 = $40,000)

The 50% rule is a great rule-of-thumb that helps you to fairly-accurately predict how much your expenses are going to cost you each month for a property. The 50% rule simply states that 50% of your income will be spent on expenses -- not including the mortgage payment. As mentioned above - most real estate listings will let you know what the monthly income of a property is. By dividing that number in half, you are able to easily see how much you'll have left to pay the monthly mortgage (principle and interest). Any income left over, after the 50% of expenses and the mortgage payment are taken out, is your cashflow. The 50% of expenses includes all expenses, including repairs, vacancies, utilities, taxes, insurance, management, turnover costs, and the occasional "big ticket" repairs that must be saved up for -- aka. CapEx or Capital Expenses like roofs, parking lots, furnaces.
Real World Example: An apartment building brings in $8,000 per month in income. Using the 50% rule, we are left with $4,000 to make the mortgage payment. If the monthly mortgage payment on the property was $3,500 per month, you can reasonably assume a monthly cashflow of $500 per month.
The 50% rule is especially helpful in teaching that expenses are almost always more than one might think. One common mistake that new investors make is under-estimating how much the expenses are going to cost. The 50% rule helps to show that there are always costs that are unexpected, so plan for them.

The 70% rule is used by investors to quickly determine the maximum price one should pay for a property based on the after repair value (ARV). Though most-often used by house flippers, the 70% rule can actually be used for any strategy when you want to find a good deal. The 70% rule says that you should only pay 70% of what the after repair value is, less the repair costs.
Real World Example: A home which, after being fixed up, should sell for approximately $200,000, needs approximately $35,000 worth of work. Using the 70% rule, a person should multiply $200,000 by 70% to get $140,000 - and then subtract the $35,000 in repairs. The most a person should pay for this property, therefore, should be $105,000.
Remember, a rule of thumb like the ones above are used only to quickly and efficiently screen a property and decide if it's worth further investigation. Never use a "rule of thumb" to decide exactly how much to pay or if you should invest or not. If a property passes the above rules (or gets close) it may be worth a more detailed analysis on paper or via a computer spreadsheet. Don't confuse a rule of thumb for a license to skip doing your homework.

Rodeo Realty Journal October 2013

Here is the latest edition of the Rodeo Realty Journal detailing all the great things happening at Rodeo Realty.

Common Types of Mold in Homes

Mold comes in all shapes, sizes and colors. Learn how to identify the type of mold in your home and develop a plan of attack for treating it.

Like the colors in a box of crayons (but not nearly as fun), mold comes in a variety of hues, including black, white, green and orange.

Water Intrusion

 

 

 

The most common types of mold include aspergillus, cladosporium and stachybotrys atra (also known as black mold).

Aspergillus is a fairly allergenic mold that is commonly found on foods and in home air conditioning systems. Cladosporium is typically a black or green "pepper like" substance that grows on the back of toilets, painted surfaces and fiberglass air ducts. While this mold is nontoxic to humans, it can trigger common allergy symptoms, such as red and watery eyes, rashes and a sore throat.

Mold that appears to be orange or red in color is typically found outdoors, given its nature to thrive on decaying plants or moist wood. This type of mold, which can appear slimy, is harmless and should only be removed for aesthetic purposes.

White mold is not technically a type of mold, but the good news is that this typically indicates the mold is only in the early stages of growth and can easily be treated.

  

Be on the lookout for signs of a water leak or condensation: water stains that get bigger over time, musty odors, continually damp carpet, or beads of water or puddles on hard surfaces. When you do have water damage, thoroughly clean and dry carpets and building materials within 24 hours if possible, and consider replacing waterlogged items to eliminate the risk of mold.

If you suspect a problem (or better yet, as preventive maintenance), hire professionals to inspect for damaged shingles and siding, poorly connected plumbing and leaky pipes, and other moisture problems, such as inadequate vapor barriers. Mitigate the issues as soon as possible.

 

Biological Contaminants

The EPA considers bacteria, molds, mildew, viruses, animal dander, cat saliva, house dust, mites, cockroaches and pollen all biological contaminants. Excessive moisture creates breeding grounds for these contaminants, so ventilate adequately and keep relative humidity between 30 percent and 50 percent to prevent condensation on building materials.    

    Regular household cleaning and maintenance go a long way toward limiting exposure. Change filters and have heating and cooling equipment cleaned and checked regularly by a professional; these systems can become not only breeding grounds for mold and other biological contaminants but also superhighways for dispersing them throughout the home.

If these methods don't suffice, an indoor air-cleaning device may help an affected area. However, avoid ozone generators that are sold as air cleaners. The EPA warns: "Whether in its pure form or mixed with other chemicals, ozone can be harmful to health."

Basements can be a particular trouble zone. The EPA recommends you clean and disinfect basement drains regularly and that you not finish a basement unless all moisture issues are abated.